The Time Line
1975 (S): First tournament featuring at-large berths to the tournament. Previously, the tournament was comprised of only conference tournament winners. In 1974, the greatest atrocity in college basketball occurred following the ACC championship game, which show-cased #1 NC State and #2 Maryland. Arguably the two best teams in the country (save Bill Walton's UCLA team), only the winner of this game would go to the NCAA tournament. Essentially, the National Championship game was played before the NCAA brackets were even paired, leading the NCAA in the very next year to implement at-large berths for qualified teams without winning their conference tournament. Since this episode, this atrocity only happens to teams from smaller conferences.
1985 (S): First tournament featuring the expansion to 64 teams, commonly referred to as Modern-Era Tournament on PPB. The previous tournament featured 53 teams, meaning 1-4 seeds received a first-round bye. As of 1985, every team must win six games to be champion.
1986 (T): First tournament featuring the shot-clock, which was set at 45 seconds. A notable reaction to North Carolina's Four-Corners offense through the 70s and early 80s and possibly 8-seed Villanova's run to the 1985 Championship when they scored 59 points or less in 5 of their 6 tournament games.
1987 (T): First tournament featuring the three-point shot. Thus, it shouldn't be a surprise that a Rick Pitino-led Providence team makes the Final Four seeing how he (and other coaches as well) have (ab)used the 3-point shot in their offensive strategy.
1988 (S): First tournament abolishing home-court advantage for First- and Second-round games. A notable reaction to 11-seed LSU's Final Four run in 1986 when they played their first- and second-round games on their own home court. It did not prevent teams from playing geographically close first- and second-round games as #2 Duke played in Chapel Hill, NC and #1 Purdue in South Bend, IN. Ironically, two of the four teams in the 1987 tournament with home-court advantage lost their opening round game.
1994 (T): First tournament featuring a 35-second shot clock, which was previously a 45-second shot clock since 1986. By reducing possession time-limits by ten seconds, the number of possessions per game can increase by a minimum of 22%, which could have been a major factor in Arkansas becoming the eventual champion with their "40 Minutes of Hell" Defense.
2001 (S): First tournament featuring 65 teams due to the Mountain West Conference receiving automatic qualifying status. Instead of reducing the number of at-large berths from 34 to 33 in order to keep the number of tournament teams at 64, the NCAA decided to compensate the additional team with a play-in game between the #64 and #65 seeded team on Tuesday night following the reveal of the brackets. Ironically, the winner of these two games was rarely paired against the overall #1 seed, which would seem to be the logical pairing.
2002 (S): First tournament featuring the pod system, where top seeds were given first- and second-round games at an approximately close tournament site (without violating the 1988 home-court rule). Sites were awarded in top-down fashion, with 1-seeds getting first pick, 2-seeds next, and so on. These sites were then redistributed among the regional sites to give higher seeds approximately close regional sites (without violating regional seeding rules).
2004 (S): First tournament featuring Regional Match-ups in the Final Four of the top 1-seed against the bottom 1-seed and the second 1-seed against the third 1-seed, assuming no upsets. This structure has been in place ever since, and the 2008 Final Four witnessed the first and only occurrence of this Regional Match-up potential. Also, the Selection Committee would produce a seed curve (different from PPB's Seed Curve) that ranks all tournament teams from 1 to 65, but bracketing was based more on geography and conference affiliation rules rather than the Committee's seed curve.
2007: First tournament featuring the "One-and-Done" rule. Implemented by the NBA, all draft prospects must be 1-year removed from high school (or 19 years old) in order to be draft-eligible. It does not mean that draft prospects have to attend college. As the previous NBA drafts (2003-05) began reaching critical mass with "Straight-Outta-High-School" prospects, the NBA implemented this rule to rein in scouting and recruiting operations that had become over-extended as franchises (especially those with lottery picks) had to scour the entire nation at both the high school and college level in order to get the pick right.
2009 (T): First tournament featuring the 20-foot, 9-inch radius for the three-point arc. Previously, the three-point arc was a 19-foot, 9-inch radius since its inception in 1987.
2011 (S): First tournament featuring 68 teams, chosen from 31 auto-bids and 37 at-large bids. With four extra teams from a standard 64-team bracket, four extra games (known as the First Four) must be played to shrink to 64 teams, with two games played on Tuesday (and these two winners playing first-round games at a Thursday site) and two games played on Wednesday (and these two winners playing first-round games at a Friday site). Four of the teams are the lowest-ranked automatic qualifiers and four of the teams are the lowest-ranked at-large qualifiers. All First Four games are played at Dayton, and exactly one winner each year from the First Four games has went on to win at least one game in the NCAA tournament.
2012 (T): First tournament featuring a 3-foot radius restricted arc in the painted area where absolutely no charges can occur involving a defender standing on or inside the restricted arc.
2014 (T): First tournament featuring newly created Freedom of Movement rules. Much debate exists over the impact of freedom of movement on the game and whether or not referees still followed those standards at the start of the 2013 tournament. In the summer of 2013 before these rules hit the court, I read an article by an CBS Sports writer about teams that would benefit from F.O.M. It is very disturbing that a rules scheme would benefit certain teams over others simply because they possess a certain style of play. An even more disturbing truth is that both national champions since the implementation of the F.O.M. rules have come from this list, not to mention several Final Four and Elite Eight teams.
2016 (T,T,T): First tournament featuring 30-second shot-clock, which was previously a 35-second shot-clock since 1994. By reducing possession time-limits by ten seconds, the number of possessions per game can increase by a minimum of 14%. We will have to see if this increase in the number of possessions per game benefits any up-tempo teams in the 2016 Tournament, just as an equivalent change in 1994 could have benefited the Arkansas Razorbacks title-run. Second, freedom of movement has also been a critical point of emphasis this season. Third, the no-charges restricted arc in the painted area is expanded to 4 feet, previously 3-foot since 2012.
Macro-Perspective
Before I begin explaining the theory, I should probably explain the notations attached to the Time Line. Any year marked with an 'S' notes a structural change to the tournament, whether it be more teams in the tournament, arrangement of the bracket, or rules on location. Any year marked with a 'T' notes a technical change to the game of college basketball, whether it be a shot-clock, an arc (3pt or no-charge) drawn on the floor, or a rules scheme. If you noticed the notations attached to the Time Line, you will have noticed that one of the changes did not have either an 'S' or a 'T'. First, I couldn't fit it into either category. It wasn't a change to tournament structure and it wasn't a change to the way the game was played. Second of all, I think its impact on the tournament since 2007 has revealed a much over-looked truth about tournament results overall, but this will have to wait until Part 2 of this article.
I could be wrong, but I believe structural changes to the tournament have little to no impact on tournament results.
- Home-advantage may have helped LSU in their 1986 run as an 11-seed, but on the whole, it doesn't seem to be consistent, as noted in 1988.
- The regional match-ups change in 2004 season shows little impact too. While it came in handy for the 2008 tournament when all four 1-seeds reached the Final Four, the bottom 1-seed Kansas defeated the top 1-seed North Carolina in the Final Four and the second-ranked 1-seed Memphis in the Championship game. In 2005, second-ranked 1-seed North Carolina defeated top 1-seed Illinois in the Championship. It seems as though the underdog wins out in this structure. Does that mean the Selection Committee got the 1-seed rankings wrong??? I don't think so, but it does raise doubt about the significance of the 2004 change on the results of the tournament.
- Finally, the 2011 change regarding the First Four is also an enigma. Logically, I would have guessed that a team having to make travel plans on Selection Sunday to play on Tuesday (Wednesday) night and, if they win, make travel plans to play on Thursday (Friday) would be too fatigued from travel and less prepared to win a R64-game than their opponent, much less a R32-game on Saturday (Sunday). Defying my logic, every year since the inception of the First Four, exactly one First Four winner has went on to win at least one game in the NCAA tournament, with one of those years seeing a Final Four run from a First Four team. It is difficult to find an explanation for this outcome, which is why I don't believe this structural change has had any impact on tournament results either.
Technical changes to the game have a slightly more noticeable impact on the game, as I have noted in their sections (i.e. - 1988, 1994, and 2014). However, their impact is not where you would expect them. Technical changes to the game seem to create 'surprise' teams.
- As noted in 1987, the introduction of the 3-point arc coincided with a Rick Pitino Final Four appearance. In 1987, the Providence Final Four was a total surprise to bracket pickers, but knowing Rick Pitino for almost 30 years now, we are well aware of his team's tendency to focus on the 3-point shot. His run to the Final Four in the same year as the adoption of the three-point shot does not seem like a surprise anymore.
- The three point arc has also created surprises in the opposite direction, or in other words, disappointments. Some teams have created an offensive strategy centered on the 3-point shot, but this may not fit perfectly with the single-elimination structure of the NCAA tournament. All it takes is icy conditions in three-point land to send a team home. In the last two years alone, Villanova has been among the leaders in the NCAA in 3-point field goal attempts, makes and percentage, yet in this same span, they have not made a Sweet Sixteen appearance despite having a 1- and a 2-seed. It proves the old saying, "You live by the 3, you die by the 3."
- Finally, technical changes, such as the restricted arc or the freedom of movement rules, can create a favored style of play, even though that team may be a double-digit seed. By limiting where a defensive player can take a charge, dribble-drivers are more likely to bull-rush the basket without fear of picking up an offensive foul because they can see where the defense has to be in order to draw that foul. With a rule system that heavily penalizes defenders for impeding the path of offensive players (despite the logical fact that keeping yourself between the offensive player and the basket is the definition and purpose of defense), dribble-drivers are more likely to bull-rush the basket knowing that even if they don't make the circus-style lay-up, they are highly likely to get free throws from the drawn foul. I do hope to make my own list of "favored teams" for the 2016 tournament since the previous list has one coaching change and a few teams that may/will not make the tournament.
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