Micro-Analysis #2: KU

While we're waiting for the next installment of the Quality Curve Analysis, I thought another micro-analysis article would be fun. I had a couple of teams from which to choose, and from this particular team, I had three different ideas on how to approach them. I ultimately settled upon what you are about to read, so let's dissect KU in the same manner they've dissected a lot of their opponents this year.

Can Kansas Continue Consistent Outcomes Conducive to a Championship?

For a number of reasons, I believe the answer to this question will eventually be no come tournament time. First off, historical analysis shows that only one defending champion since 2002 has advanced beyond the S16 (2007 FLA), and they returned approximately 95% of their previous team's production. In 1998, ARI advanced to the E8, and from their 1997 National Championship team, they returned close to 90% (I personally cannot validate this figure due to lack of reliable data for that time period, but I do know it is close to that value). Apparently, returning 90% of your team is the secret to overcoming this barrier. However, 2023 KU returned approximately 30% of their 2022 National Championship team. Second off, power ratings (elo-based ratings systems) are starting to lower their probabilities for a deep tournament run. Elo ratings systems are based on margin of victory, so wider margin of victories imply higher probabilities of advancement. As we will see below, KU has squeaked by a lot of average teams, so their low margin of victory has begun to punish their elo rating. Instead of relying on these macro-models, let's use micro-analysis to answer two questions: How does Kansas win and can they keep it up?

Micro-Analysis #1: UCONN

If you are an avid reader of my blog, you know I have a tendency to look at the college basketball world from a top-down perspective (a.k.a. - the macro approach). You will also know that I keep saying I want to do more micro-analysis on the blog and then never do. Since I'm still tying together loose ends on other models, this seems like a better-now-than-never opportunity to do a micro-analysis article. Though it may seem far different than the wordy and explanation-of-the-explanation-of-the-explanation style of my other articles, I do want these articles to be quick reads and the numbers to speak for themselves. So, let's dive into it.

The Curious Case of Crashing UConn

Before Christmas and any of my QC analysis, CONN looked like the undisputed champ of college basketball. They were winning games by 20+ points, two of which were against current Top 15 teams, and they were beating teams by 20 points that other good teams were only winning by 10 or less points. Then, after their eight day Christmas break, things went south quickly, and the #1 AP-ranked team has now found itself hoping to stay in the Top 20 by next week's poll reveal. Let's start with possessions.

2023 Quality Curve Analysis - January Edition

Happy New Year! In the real world, it's the beginning of a new year, but in the college basketball world, almost half of the regular season is complete. This point in the season allows us to examine the current quality of college basketball, and it gives us the first prospective look into the quality of the 2023 tourney. Without further ado, let's take a look into what March could look like.