Feb 28, 2021

A Theoretical Attempt at Meta-Analysis

If you've ever played trading card games, then you'll have same familiarity with my current topic. I grew up playing all kinds of card games, but trading card games were always my favorite because of the diversity in how you could play them. You could be aggressive with quick, hard-hitting strategies, conservative with control and lock-down strategies, or clever with endless-looping combinations that "break the game" and result in an auto-win or a special end-game format to handle the "broken-game condition." The variety of different approaches results in a competitive state labelled as "Meta", where X% of the decks are Strategy A, Y% of the decks are Strategy B, Z% of the decks are Strategy C, and etc. For example, if you attended a tournament and expected X + Y > 60% of the meta, you would want to construct and play an anti-meta deck, which means your deck would beat "on average" more than 60% of the decks being played at the tournament. In more colloquial terms, it is akin to playing a "rock-type" deck when everyone else is playing a "scissors-type" deck (and hoping you don't randomly run into the less than 10% playing a "paper-type" deck).

College basketball demonstrates a meta-like quality, given the variety of offenses (passing motion, dribble-drive motion, swing, point-action reversal, shuffle, princeton) and defenses (pass-denial M2M, pack-line M2M, zone, and an occasional full-court havoc/hell press) in the game. What I am more interested in (and what this article will look at) is a statistical-based meta for the game and the tournament.