Feb 26, 2018

2018 Quality Curve Analysis - March Edition

Welcome back PPB-readers! Unless you are in the B10 Conference, we have exactly two more weeks of games until the Selection Show on Mar 11, so that means it is time for the March installment of the QC Analysis series. If you missed the first two installments, here are the links (January and February). While I hope it won't take you two weeks to read this installment, there are a lot of issues that I want to discuss in this installment and I doubt that I will get to address them in the Final Edition. So let's get started.

Feb 12, 2018

The "Experieneced Talent" Model (Post-Season Update)

What a week of college basketball (and I could make the same exasperated comment for the officiating of that week too, but that's another story for another time). In this past week alone:
  • #1 NOVA, #2 UVA, #8 AUB, #13 ARI, #19 WVU, and #23 NEV lose "home games" to unranked teams
  • #10 KU, #15 TENN, #20 MICH, and #25 MIA lose road games to unranked teams
  • #3 PUR, #17 OKLA, and #24 UK lose both games played for the week (and to PUR's credit, both of their losses came against Top-14 teams).
  • #5 XAV gets two road wins, the first to some of the best officiating I've seen in quite some time and the second to the absolute worst late-game officiating I've seen in quite some time.
  • Most importantly, the Selection Committee released their annual in-season mock tournament field with the Top 16 teams and their seedings on Feb 11, exactly four weeks before the real deal on Selection Sunday Mar 11. While I will refrain from issuing my full thoughts on the contents of this release, it should suffice enough to say: "What a way to end this week!"
If you are not convinced by last week alone that the 2018 tournament is going to be a wild one, then reading this article will be a waste of your time. As I have teased on the blog for over two months, this article will detail a quirky model that I conceived to measure and/or predict the stability or instability of the tournament.