It's time to upset my readers even more with the next article in this 3-part series on Upsets. In Part 1, a theoretical framework was built for analyzing upsets based entirely on probability. It was constructed using all possible combinations of upset-potential match-ups (UPMs) for each of the six rounds of the bracket. It also examined the mathematical underpinnings of seed differentials for each of the six rounds. While Part 1 covered the vast range of what could happen in the tournament (the theoretical perspective), this article will cover what has actually happened in the tournament: The Historical Perspective. This article will examine the historical perspective through two viewpoints: the big picture (the overall counts on upsets and UPMs) and the individual games (a breakdown of the seed-by-seed match-ups). Furthermore, this article will be more descriptive than explanatory -- recording and summarizing the results rather than providing explanations and insights for the results. Let's get to it.
Dec 4, 2017
Upests in the Making (Part 1) - Theoretical Analysis of Upsets
I hope the two teasers that I left helped you figure out the subject of this article: Upsets. It doesn't take a rocket scientist (and I certainly am not one of them) to know that upsets are the biggest part of the tournament experience. In fact, a well-rounded understanding of upsets can make a difference of 3-15 picks in your bracket compared to your competitor's bracket. To gain that top-level insight into upsets, this article will examine upsets from the first of three different perspectives: The Theoretical Perspective.
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